GTA Housing Market December 2025: Buyers’ Market Now, Quiet Recovery Building For 2026

AI Summary – For Busy Readers

• The GTA is firmly in a buyers market heading into December 2025, with the sales to new listings ratio around 38% and average prices about 7% lower than a year ago.
• The Bank of Canada policy rate sits at 2.25% after multiple cuts in 2024 and 2025, and most forecasts expect rates to stay near this level through 2026, which gives buyers more predictable borrowing costs.
• In October 2025, the average GTA home price was about $1.05 million, down roughly 7% year over year, while sales were down about 9% and new listings were up about 3%. This creates more choice and leverage for buyers.
• Mississauga and Brampton remain more affordable than the Toronto core, with average prices around $975K and $935K respectively, and both cities showing mid to high single digit price declines versus last year.
• National and provincial forecasts call for a gradual recovery in 2026, not a boom or crash, with home sales expected to rise while price growth stays modest and tied to fundamentals.
• Buyers who are financially ready can use winter 2025 conditions to negotiate price, conditions, and incentives, while sellers need sharp pricing, staging, and strong marketing in order to stand out.

As we turn the calendar to December 2025, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market looks very different from the peak years of 2021 and 2022. Price growth has cooled, listings have built up, and the balance of power has shifted toward buyers in many neighborhoods.

At the same time, interest rates have finally settled into a more stable range. The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate to 2.25% in late October and has signaled a preference for holding around this level as long as inflation cooperates. Several major forecasters now expect the policy rate to stay near 2.25% through most of 2026, with only small moves possible in either direction.

For buyers and sellers across Toronto, Mississauga, and Brampton, this creates a rare combination: softer prices, more selection, and more predictable borrowing costs. In this December 2025 update, RCIB Real Estate breaks down where the market stands now and what early 2026 is likely to bring.

1. Where The GTA Housing Market Stands Entering December 2025

The latest October 2025 data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board and independent analytics platforms show a market that clearly favors buyers:

• GTA average selling price: approximately $1,054,000, down about 7% year over year.
• Benchmark price (typical home) around $957,000, down about 5% compared to October 2024.
• Sales: just over 6,100 transactions in October, down close to 10% from a year earlier.
• New listings: a little over 16,000, up roughly 3% year over year, which means more choice and competition among sellers.
• Sales to new listings ratio (SNLR): around 38%, which is firmly in buyers market territory. Anything below 40% is usually considered a buyers market.
• Days on market: homes taking roughly 50 days to sell on average, compared to the low 40s a year ago.

Nationally, recent data shows that October 2025 home sales were up slightly month over month, marking several increases in the last seven months as lower borrowing costs slowly bring buyers back. However, average prices are still down modestly year over year, and supply is clearly higher than last fall, which lines up with what we are seeing on the ground in the GTA.

The takeaway for December 2025 is clear: buyers who are confident in their income and long term plans currently have more choice, more negotiating power, and slightly better mortgage rates than they have seen in several years.

2. Toronto, Mississauga, Brampton – Price Snapshot And Local Trends

Toronto And The GTA Overall

Within the broader GTA, the October 2025 numbers show a market that has cooled but not crashed:

• Average GTA price around $1.05 million, down about 7% year over year and slightly lower than the month before.
• Benchmark price down about 5% annually and slightly negative month over month.
• All major property types saw year over year price declines in October: detached, semi detached, freehold townhomes, and condos.

Detached homes still sit in the mid $1.3 million range on average, while condo apartments average in the mid $600,000 range across the GTA. This gap between ground oriented homes and condos continues to shape buyer behavior, especially for families who want more space.

Mississauga – Softer Prices With Stable Demand

Mississauga continues to mirror broader GTA trends, with some local nuances that matter for buyers and sellers:

• Average Mississauga sale price in October 2025 around $968,000, down roughly 10 to 11% versus October 2024.
• Composite benchmark price near $979,000, down around 7% year over year.
• Recent rolling data shows average prices around $975,000, with median days on market in the low 30s.
• New listings in Mississauga sit above 5 year and 10 year October averages, which gives buyers more options in every price band.

Detached homes in Mississauga remain above the $1.3 million mark on average, while townhomes and apartments provide more accessible entry points in the high $700,000 and high $500,000 ranges respectively.

Brampton – More Accessible Prices, Active Listings Building

Brampton continues to be one of the more affordable large cities within the GTA, although it has also seen notable price adjustments since the 2022 peak:

• Average Brampton sale price in October 2025 around $934,000, down roughly 8 to 10% compared to last year.
• That is a significant drop from an average around $1.35 million at the 2022 peak.
• Recent monthly data shows average prices around the low $900,000 range, with median days on market just over 30 days.
• Active listings in Brampton are more than 25% higher than a year ago, which supports more buyer choice and softer pricing in many neighborhoods.

For buyers priced out of central Toronto or high end Mississauga neighborhoods, Brampton’s detached and semi detached segments still offer relatively larger homes at more accessible prices, in exchange for a longer commute for some buyers.

3. Interest Rates And Financing Heading Into 2026

The biggest structural change that supports today’s buyers is the shift in borrowing costs.

• The Bank of Canada policy rate is currently 2.25%, after a series of cuts from 3.00% at the start of 2025 and from 4.75% in mid 2024.
• Typical five year fixed rates sit in the high 3% to mid 4% range, while competitive variable rates can be found in the mid 3% range for well qualified borrowers.
• Many forecasts suggest the policy rate will likely stay close to 2.25% through most of 2026, with only limited room left for additional cuts or hikes unless the economic outlook changes significantly.

For GTA buyers, this means that the era of sudden rate shocks is largely behind us for now. Payments are still higher than they were in 2020 or 2021, but they are lower and more predictable than they were at the 5% policy rate peak.

RCIB Real Estate strongly recommends that buyers:

• Secure a full pre approval before shopping so you know your exact budget and stress test rate.
• Compare at least two to three lenders or work with a broker who can shop the market for you.
• Ask about flexible prepayment privileges and portability in case you need to move again within 3 to 5 years.

4. Will 2026 Be A Rebound Year For The GTA Housing Market?

Several major forecasting bodies agree on the broad outline for 2026: a gradual recovery in sales volumes with modest price growth, not a dramatic boom or bust.

• National home sales are expected to rise in 2026, with some forecasts calling for a 7 to 8% increase in transactions compared to 2025.
• Analysts expect a rebound in sales as lower rates filter through the system, but they also point to softer job markets, slower immigration and stretched affordability as reasons why growth will stay measured.
• Many outlooks point to faster price growth in 2025 followed by slower and more sustainable gains in 2026 and 2027 as pent up demand is gradually worked through.
• Ontario specific forecasts call for low single digit price growth in 2026 after a provincial price decline in 2025.

One important change is the federal government decision to dial back immigration targets, which will ease some of the pressure that was driving rents and prices higher in Ontario and British Columbia. Analysts estimate this could reduce rent growth compared to the prior immigration trajectory, especially in the most supply constrained markets.

For the GTA, this likely means:

• More balanced demand instead of intense bidding wars on most properties.
• Continued strong interest in well located homes near transit, jobs, and good schools.
• Slow but steady recovery in sales volumes as rates stabilize and buyers regain confidence.
• Price growth that depends heavily on neighborhood level fundamentals, not speculation.

5. Strategy For Buyers In December 2025 And Early 2026

If you are planning to buy in the GTA, Mississauga, or Brampton, current conditions give you a window of opportunity that might not last once confidence fully returns in 2026.

Smart Moves For Buyers Right Now

• Use the buyers market to negotiate – With more listings and longer days on market, sellers are more open to conditions, price reductions, and inclusions.
• Focus on total monthly cost, not just sticker price – Combine price, mortgage payment, property tax, utilities, and condo fees when you compare homes.
• Target value neighborhoods – Parts of Clarkson, central Erin Mills, and several Brampton communities offer similar amenities to premium areas at a meaningful discount.
• Prioritize flexibility – Look for homes where you can add a legal suite, finish a basement, or improve energy efficiency to offset carrying costs.
• Leverage local expertise – An RCIB Real Estate agent who works daily in Mississauga and Brampton can spot micro trends that do not show up in headline stats.

To explore what is available right now, start with current GTA listings and then connect with our RCIB agents for neighborhood specific advice.

6. Strategy For Sellers And Investors

For Sellers

In a buyers market, presentation and pricing matter more than ever.

• Price with the market, not last year – October and November 2025 comparables show lower prices than 2024 in most areas. Overpricing leads to stale listings and deeper discounts later.
• Stage and repair strategically – Fresh paint, minor repairs, basic landscaping, and decluttering can significantly improve buyer perception at a relatively low cost.
• Offer flexibility – Being open to conditional offers, longer or shorter closings, or small credits for updates can help your listing stand out.
• Lean on strong marketing – Professional photography, video tours, and targeted digital marketing on platforms like Google and social media are essential to drive traffic in a more crowded market.

For Investors

For long term investors, December 2025 through spring 2026 could look attractive, especially in submarkets where prices have adjusted more than rents.

• Focus on neighborhoods that benefit from confirmed transit and infrastructure improvements.
• Consider properties with clear value add potential such as legal second suites, cosmetic renovations, or energy efficiency upgrades.
• Model conservative rent growth given softer immigration targets and easing rental pressure, but do not ignore the GTA’s long term undersupply of housing.

The most successful investors in this environment are patient, data driven, and prepared to hold for at least 5 to 10 years rather than speculating on quick flips.

Frequently Asked Questions – December 2025 GTA Housing Market

Will GTA home prices drop further in 2026?

Most national and provincial forecasts are calling for flat to modestly positive price growth in 2026, not another large decline. That said, specific neighborhoods that are still overpriced relative to incomes and rents could see further adjustment, while value oriented and transit friendly areas may stabilize sooner or even start to rise again.

Is winter 2025 a good time to buy in the GTA?

For financially prepared buyers, winter often brings less competition and more negotiable sellers. With the market already in buyers territory, December 2025 and the early months of 2026 could offer better prices and more favorable terms than a busier spring market.

How has the 2.25% Bank of Canada rate changed affordability?

The move down from policy rates near 5% in 2023 to 2.25% today has reduced typical mortgage rates by more than a full percentage point in many cases. Combined with softer prices, this has lowered monthly carrying costs for new buyers, even though stress testing and higher prices than pre pandemic levels still limit how far budgets can stretch.

Which areas of Mississauga and Brampton look most attractive right now?

In Mississauga, neighborhoods like Clarkson, parts of Erin Mills, and select pockets near the Hurontario LRT corridor offer a mix of relative value and strong long term fundamentals. In Brampton, areas with good schools, transit access, and newer housing stock, such as parts of Mount Pleasant and Northwest Brampton, are drawing attention from families who want more space at a lower price point than Mississauga or Toronto.

How can I get a personalized plan for buying or selling in 2026?

The right move depends on your income, savings, timeline, and preferred neighborhoods. An RCIB Real Estate advisor can walk you through local data for your specific area and help you compare different scenarios. Start by visiting RCIB Real Estate, browsing current listings, and then booking a one on one consultation with our team.

As we move into 2026, the GTA housing market is shifting away from the extremes of the past few years and back toward fundamentals. With the right information and guidance, buyers and sellers can use this transition period to make smart long term decisions that fit their goals.