Published: February 11, 2026
The Toronto average home price in 2026 has hit a historic milestone: for the first time since January 2021, GTA home prices have dropped below $1 million. At $973,289, the average home price is down 6.5% year-over-year—and if you’re wondering what your property is actually worth in this shifting market, you’re not alone.
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📊 KEY TAKEAWAYS
The Big Picture:
- ✋ GTA average home price: $973,289 – first time below $1M since January 2021
- 📉 Prices down 6.5% year-over-year – significant correction from 2021-2022 peak
- ⏱️ Homes taking 67 days to sell (up from 55 days last year)
- 💰 Selling 3% below asking price on average – clear buyer’s market
By Property Type:
- 🏠 Detached homes: $1.28M (down 7.2%)
- 🏘️ Semi-detached: $946K (down 9.7%)
- 🏡 Townhouses: $915K (down 7.0%)
- 🏢 Condos hit hardest: $605K (down 9.8%)
What’s Driving This:
- 🏦 Interest rates holding at 2.25% through 2026 – no more cuts expected
- 🇺🇸 US tariff uncertainty and CUSMA renegotiation causing buyers to hesitate
- 🧊 Market digesting 2020-2022 surge – prices correcting to sustainable levels
- 📊 Buyer confidence at 22% (down from 27% in 2025)
What Happens Next:
- ⏳ First half 2026: Expect continued soft pricing and elevated inventory
- 📈 Second half 2026: Possible stabilization if economic confidence improves
- 🎯 Forecast range: $1M to $1.03M average for the year
Bottom Line:
- 🔴 For sellers: Price accurately or prepare to sit on the market
- 🟢 For buyers: Best negotiating power in years – but uncertainty remains
- ⚡ For everyone: Get your current valuation – what your home was worth last year doesn’t matter
→ Get Your Free Home Valuation in 60 Seconds
The $1 Million Milestone: What Just Happened
In January 2026, the GTA housing market hit a significant turning point. The average selling price dropped to $973,289—a 6.5% decline from last year and the first time prices have dipped below $1 million since January 2021 WOWACP24.
This isn’t just a statistical blip. It represents a fundamental shift in the market that affects every homeowner, buyer, and seller across the region.
Get Your Free Home Value Estimate in 60 Seconds →
The Numbers Behind the Headlines
Let’s break down what’s really happening across different property types:
Detached Homes
Average price: $1,277,915 (down 7.2% year-over-year) WOWA
If you own a detached home in the GTA, you’ve likely seen your property value decline by approximately $100,000 over the past year. However, the impact varies significantly by neighborhood—some areas are holding strong while others have dropped 10% or more.
Semi-Detached Homes
Average price: $945,967 (down 9.7% year-over-year) WOWA
Semi-detached properties have been hit harder than detached homes, with nearly double-digit percentage declines across the region.
Townhouses
Average price: $914,738 (down 7.0% year-over-year) WOWA
Freehold townhouses remain a middle ground but haven’t escaped the broader market correction.
Condos: The Biggest Impact
Average price: $604,759 (down 9.8% year-over-year) WOWA
Condominium apartments have experienced the sharpest decline. If you bought a condo at peak prices in 2021-2022, you’re likely looking at a valuation significantly below your purchase price.
Not sure where your property falls? Find out your home’s current market value here →
Why This is Happening Now
Several factors have converged to create this market correction:
1. Interest Rate Reality Check
The Bank of Canada is holding its policy rate at 2.25% WOWABank of Canada, and experts unanimously expect rates to stay there through the end of 2026. While this is significantly lower than the 5% peak in 2023, it’s not low enough to reignite the buying frenzy we saw during the pandemic years.
The era of ultra-low “free money” rates is over. Buyers have adjusted their expectations accordingly.
2. US Trade Uncertainty
The CMHC reports that demand from buyers is expected to “remain below historical averages” due to elevated price-to-income ratios, high carrying costs, and lingering job uncertainty Global News.
The upcoming CUSMA (Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement) renegotiation in July 2026 has created significant uncertainty. Many potential buyers are sitting on the sidelines until there’s more clarity about Canada’s economic future.
3. The 2020-2022 Hangover
The Ontario and BC markets are “still digesting the rapid run-up of 2020-2022” Reic. What went up dramatically is now coming back down to more sustainable levels.
Home prices increased by 40-50% in some GTA neighborhoods during the pandemic. The market is now correcting this irrational exuberance.
4. Buyers Have Leverage Again
The average property now takes 67 days to sell (up from 55 days last year), and homes are selling for 3% less than their asking price on average WOWA.
This is a buyer’s market—and sellers who don’t price correctly are seeing their properties languish.
What This Means for Homeowners
If You’re Thinking About Selling
The Hard Truth: Your home is likely worth less than it was a year ago, and potentially much less than it was in 2021-2022.
The Strategic Reality: TRREB expects “average selling prices will likely be lower year-over-year in the first half of 2026 before stabilizing in the second half” TRREB.
This means if you need to sell, pricing accurately from day one is critical. Overpriced homes are sitting on the market while properly priced properties are still moving.
Action Step: Get a current, accurate valuation. What your neighbor’s house sold for in 2022 is irrelevant. What matters is what buyers will pay today.
Get Your Updated Home Valuation →
If You’re Thinking About Buying
The Good News: Affordability has improved significantly. Prices are down 6.5% year-over-year, and you have negotiating power.
The Better News: Only 22% of GTA residents say they’re likely to buy in the next year GlobeNewswire—meaning less competition for you.
The Catch: Uncertainty remains. Many buyers are waiting for “the bottom,” but timing the market perfectly is impossible.
The Reality: If you find a property you love at a price that works for your budget, 2026 might be your window. Interest rates aren’t expected to drop further, and prices are forecast to stabilize later this year.
Neighborhood-by-Neighborhood Breakdown
Not all GTA neighborhoods are experiencing the same correction. Here’s what we’re seeing:
Toronto Core (416)
Average price fell to $948,698, down 3.8% year-over-year with a benchmark price of $924,100, down 6.6% annually WOWA
Downtown condos have been hit hardest, particularly investor-owned units. Family homes in desirable school districts are holding up better.
Mississauga & Brampton (905 West)
The 905 region, particularly in condo apartments, has seen sharp pressure as investors exit the market. Detached homes in established neighborhoods are more resilient.
Durham & York Regions (905 East/North)
These areas attracted many buyers during the pandemic due to affordability. Price corrections here have been more moderate but still significant.
Want to know exactly what’s happening in YOUR specific neighborhood? Get your personalized market report →
The Condo Crisis
The condo market deserves special attention. With condo prices down 9.8% to an average of $604,759 and sales down 26% year-over-year WOWA, this segment is under severe stress.
Why Condos Are Hit Hardest:
- Investor Exit: Many investors who bought during the pandemic are now selling, flooding the market with supply
- Pre-Construction Completions: Thousands of new condo units are hitting the market simultaneously
- Maintenance Fee Increases: Rising condo fees are making ownership less attractive
- Work-from-Home Impact: Fewer people need downtown condos for commuting
If you own a condo, getting an accurate current valuation is more important than ever. The days of automatic appreciation are over.
What Happens Next?
First Half of 2026 (Now – June)
Market activity is expected to resemble 2025 levels, as many households remain cautious about committing to long-term mortgage payments TRREB.
Expectation: Continued soft pricing, elevated inventory, buyer’s market conditions
Second Half of 2026 (July – December)
If economic prospects and consumer confidence improve in the second half of the year, pent-up demand from the past several years could begin to be satisfied GlobeNewswire.
Potential Catalyst: Clarity on CUSMA negotiations, improved job market confidence
Expected Price Range for 2026: Between $1 million and $1.03 million for GTA average TRREB
Should You Get Your Home Valued?
You should get a current valuation if:
✓ You’re thinking about selling in the next 12 months
✓ You bought your home in 2020-2022 and aren’t sure what it’s worth today
✓ You’re curious whether you have enough equity to upgrade
✓ You’re considering refinancing or getting a HELOC
✓ You want to understand your net worth accurately
✓ You’re planning retirement and need to know your housing equity
Why Get Valued Now:
The market is moving fast. Prices have dropped 6.5% in just one year. What your home was worth six months ago isn’t what it’s worth today.
Whether you’re selling or just planning for the future, having accurate information gives you power.
How to Get an Accurate Valuation
Online estimates like Zestimates or HouseSigma can give you a ballpark figure, but they’re based on algorithms and historical data. They don’t account for:
- Recent neighborhood sales in the past 30 days
- Your home’s specific condition and upgrades
- Current market momentum (or lack thereof)
- Buyer sentiment in your specific area
- Unique features or challenges of your property
Professional valuations from experienced agents consider:
- Comparable sales from the past 60-90 days
- Active listings you’re competing against
- Days on market trends in your neighborhood
- Specific buyer demand for your property type
- Current economic conditions and interest rates
Get Your Free Professional Home Valuation →
The Bottom Line
The GTA housing market has entered a new phase. Prices below $1 million might grab headlines, but what really matters is what YOUR specific property is worth in YOUR specific neighborhood TODAY.
Ontario and BC markets are undergoing “a fundamental reset of expectations” Reic. This isn’t a crash—it’s a correction back to more sustainable levels after the pandemic surge.
For sellers: Price accurately or prepare to wait
For buyers: You finally have negotiating power
For everyone: Knowledge is your advantage
Take Action Today
The market isn’t waiting. Get your free, no-obligation home valuation and understand exactly where you stand in this shifting market.
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About RCIB Real Estate
RCIB Real Estate Limited, Brokerage has been serving the GTA since 2004. With 60+ experienced agents and cutting-edge technology, we provide homeowners with accurate, data-driven insights into today’s complex real estate market. Our team understands that in uncertain times, accurate information is more valuable than ever.
Data sources: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), Bank of Canada, CMHC, WOWA.ca, Real Estate Institute of Canada. All statistics current as of February 2026.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Will prices keep falling?
A: TRREB expects prices to be lower year-over-year in the first half of 2026 before stabilizing in the second half if buyers return to the market TRREB. Much depends on economic confidence and CUSMA negotiations.
Q: Is this a good time to buy?
A: Affordability has improved significantly with prices down 6.5% and buyers having negotiating power. However, uncertainty remains. If you find the right property at the right price, waiting for “the bottom” might mean missing opportunities.
Q: Should I wait to sell?
A: If you need to sell, pricing correctly NOW is better than overpricing and chasing the market down. If you can wait, second half of 2026 may offer more stability.
Q: Are interest rates going lower?
A: Markets now price the Bank of Canada at 2.25% through all of 2026, with rates expected to remain broadly stable WOWA. Don’t count on significant rate cuts.
Q: Why are condos hit harder?
A: Investor demand has evaporated, with condo sales down 26% year-over-year WOWA, while new supply continues to hit the market from pre-construction projects.
Find Out What Your Home is Worth Today →
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