February 2026: A Market in Transition
The Greater Toronto Area real estate market in February 2026 reflects a market finding its footing after a period of recalibration. According to TRREB data, total residential sales across the GTA reached approximately 4,800 transactions in February, down 8% from February 2025 but showing a 12% improvement over January 2026.
New listings surged to 11,200 units, providing buyers with the most February inventory in over a decade. The resulting sales-to-new-listings ratio of 43% places the market firmly in buyer-friendly territory, a significant shift from the balanced conditions seen throughout much of 2025.
Sales Volume and Activity
February typically marks the beginning of the spring ramp-up, and 2026 is following that seasonal pattern, albeit at a more moderate pace than recent years.
Monthly Sales Comparison
| Month | Sales (2026) | Sales (2025) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| January | 4,280 | 4,950 | -13.5% |
| February | 4,800 | 5,220 | -8.1% |
Activity has been strongest in the detached home segment, where well-priced properties in desirable neighborhoods are still generating multiple offers. The condo segment continues to lag, with sales volume down 15% year-over-year as investor exits add supply pressure.
Price Trends Across the GTA
Average prices across the GTA reflect a market that is adjusting but not collapsing:
- Detached homes: $1,285,000 average, down 3.2% YoY but stable month-over-month
- Semi-detached: $985,000 average, down 4.1% YoY
- Townhouses: $840,000 average, down 2.8% YoY
- Condominiums: $590,000 average, down 7.5% YoY
The composite average of $978,000 reflects the first time the GTA has dipped below the $1 million mark since early 2021.
Regional Variations
The 416 and 905 regions are performing differently:
- Toronto (416): Average price $920,000, with downtown condos pulling the composite lower while midtown and east-end low-rise holds steady
- Peel Region: Average price $945,000, Mississauga outperforming Brampton by approximately 3%
- York Region: Average price $1,120,000, with Markham and Richmond Hill seeing the most significant corrections
- Durham Region: Average price $830,000, emerging as a value destination with strong GO Transit connectivity
- Halton Region: Average price $1,180,000, Oakville and Burlington maintaining premium positioning
Mississauga Neighborhood Analysis
Mississauga's diverse market offers options across multiple price points:
| Neighborhood | Average Price | DOM | Highlights |
|---|---|---|---|
| Port Credit | $1,250,000 | 15 days | Waterfront, walkable, GO Transit |
| Erin Mills | $1,100,000 | 18 days | Top schools, family-friendly |
| Clarkson | $1,050,000 | 17 days | Transit access, relative value |
| Cooksville | $720,000 | 16 days | Most affordable, future LRT |
Brampton Market Opportunities
Brampton's average price of $920,000 offers accessibility compared to the broader GTA:
- Mount Pleasant: $950,000 -- modern amenities, transit access
- Bram West: $940,000 -- newer construction, growing community
- Fletcher's Meadow: $900,000 -- family-friendly, strong value
- Bramalea: $880,000 -- established community, best entry price with 18-day average DOM
Interest Rates and Affordability
The Bank of Canada's overnight rate remains at 2.25%, supporting a favorable borrowing environment. Current mortgage rates are competitive:
- 5-year fixed: 4.49% to 4.89%
- 5-year variable: 3.70% to 4.15%
- 3-year fixed: 4.29% to 4.69%
For a median-priced home of $950,000 with 20% down ($760,000 mortgage), monthly payments range from approximately $4,100 to $4,350 depending on rate and amortization period.
What Buyers Should Know
February 2026 offers buyers several advantages:
- Less competition: Fewer competing offers compared to the frenzy of 2021-2022
- Motivated sellers: Properties that lingered through winter are often priced for action
- Inspection leverage: Buyers can include conditions without fear of losing out
- Rate stability: No imminent rate hikes are expected through mid-2026
- Negotiating power: Homes selling 3% below asking on average
Best Value Neighborhoods in February 2026
- Scarborough (Agincourt, Woburn): Detached homes under $1M with renovation potential
- Brampton (Bramalea, Fletcher's Meadow): Family-friendly neighborhoods with strong community infrastructure
- Ajax and Whitby: Newer builds under $900,000 with GO Train access
- Mississauga (Meadowvale, Malton): Townhouses under $800,000
What Sellers Should Know
Sellers face a market that demands strategic pricing and polished presentation:
- Price at or slightly below recent comparable sales to generate interest quickly
- Invest in professional staging and photography -- first impressions carry more weight in a buyer's market
- Be prepared for conditions and longer negotiation timelines
- Consider timing your listing for late February or early March to capture the spring momentum
- Expect a list-to-sale ratio of approximately 97-98%
Outlook for Spring 2026
Market analysts expect a gradual firming of prices as spring demand picks up. TRREB forecasts that average selling prices will likely be lower year-over-year in the first half before stabilizing in the second half of 2026. Immigration-driven population growth, stable interest rates, and limited new housing supply in core areas suggest the current correction is cyclical rather than structural.
Leading institutions project the full-year 2026 average between $1 million and $1.03 million. Buyers and sellers who act strategically in the current window stand to benefit as the market finds its equilibrium.
