February 2026 Market Summary
The GTA real estate market in February 2026 continues to reflect the broader rebalancing that has defined the past several months. With more inventory on the market and buyers exercising greater caution, the market has settled into a pattern that rewards strategic decision-making on both sides of a transaction.
TRREB reported 4,800 residential transactions in February, a decline of 8% from the same month last year. Meanwhile, new listings totaled 11,200, up 14% year-over-year, pushing active inventory to levels not seen since 2019.
Key Statistics at a Glance
| Metric | February 2026 | February 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 4,800 | 5,220 | -8.1% |
| New Listings | 11,200 | 9,825 | +14.0% |
| Active Listings | 18,500 | 14,200 | +30.3% |
| Average Price | $978,000 | $1,042,000 | -6.1% |
| Median Price | $885,000 | $940,000 | -5.9% |
| Avg. Days on Market | 28 | 22 | +27.3% |
| Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio | 42.9% | 53.1% | -10.2 pts |
The SNLR below 45% confirms buyer's market conditions, while the average DOM increase signals that sellers need more patience and better pricing strategies.
Price Analysis by Property Type
Detached Homes
Detached homes remain the most resilient segment, with an average price of $1,285,000 across the GTA. While this represents a 3.2% year-over-year decline, well-maintained detached homes in established neighborhoods continue to attract strong interest. Properties under $1.2 million in the 905 region are selling within 20 days on average.
Semi-Detached and Townhouses
The semi-detached and townhouse segments have experienced moderate corrections:
- Semi-detached: $985,000 average, down 4.1% YoY
- Freehold townhouses: $870,000 average, down 2.5% YoY
- Condo townhouses: $720,000 average, down 5.8% YoY
These property types remain popular with young families seeking space without detached-home prices.
Condominiums
The condo market continues to face the strongest headwinds with an average price of $590,000, down 7.5% from last year. Contributing factors include:
- Record completion volumes adding supply from pre-construction projects sold in 2021-2022
- Investor-owned units entering the resale market as carrying costs exceed rental income
- Buyer preference shifting toward ground-level housing where work-from-home space is prioritized
- Condo sales volume down 26% year-over-year, the weakest segment by far
Regional Breakdown
Toronto (416)
- Average price: $948,698 (down 3.8% YoY)
- Sales volume: 2,100 transactions
- Strongest areas: East End (Riverdale, Leslieville), Midtown (Davisville, Yonge-Eglinton)
- Weakest areas: Downtown condo corridors along Yonge and Lake Shore
- Family homes in desirable school districts holding up better than investor-oriented condos
Peel Region
- Average price: $945,000
- Sales volume: 1,050 transactions
- Mississauga maintaining value better than Brampton due to transit and waterfront appeal
- Caledon showing resilience in the estate-home segment
- Hurontario LRT corridor generating interest in Cooksville and Port Credit
York Region
- Average price: $1,120,000
- Sales volume: 850 transactions
- Vaughan and Richmond Hill experiencing sharper corrections than Markham
- Aurora and Newmarket attracting buyers seeking value north of the 407
Durham Region
- Average price: $830,000
- Sales volume: 620 transactions
- Strongest value proposition in the GTA with improving transit infrastructure
- Oshawa, Whitby, and Ajax showing healthy absorption rates
Interest Rate Environment
The Bank of Canada has maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% through early 2026. Markets now price this rate through the remainder of 2026, with rates expected to remain broadly stable. Current posted rates:
- 5-year fixed: 4.49% to 4.89%
- Variable rate: 3.70% to 4.15%
Monthly Payment Examples
| Home Price | Down Payment (20%) | Monthly Payment (5-yr fixed at 4.75%) |
|---|---|---|
| $900K | $180K | $4,100 |
| $1M | $200K | $4,550 |
| $1.1M | $220K | $5,000 |
Buyer Strategy for February 2026
Current market conditions favor prepared buyers:
- Secure pre-approval to lock in rates and know your budget
- Leverage the buyer's market -- include home inspection and financing conditions
- Negotiate confidently -- homes are selling 3% below asking on average
- Focus on emerging neighborhoods in Durham and Brampton for best value
- Consider the condo opportunity -- steep discounts may represent long-term value for end-users
Seller Strategy for February 2026
Sellers must adapt to the current environment:
- Price competitively based on the last 30-60 days of comparable sales
- Invest in professional staging and photography -- the list-to-sale ratio of 97% demands precision
- Consider listing in late February or early March for spring momentum
- Be prepared for conditions and longer negotiation timelines
Forecast: What to Expect in Spring 2026
Looking ahead to March through May, several dynamics are likely to shape the market:
- Seasonal demand increase: Buyer activity historically rises 20-30% from February to April
- Inventory growth: Listings will continue to climb as sellers target the spring market
- Price stabilization: The pace of price declines is expected to moderate as increased demand meets existing supply
- Trade uncertainty: The CUSMA renegotiation in July 2026 could affect buyer confidence
The consensus among TRREB, RBC, and TD economists is that GTA home prices will find a floor by mid-2026, with the full-year average expected between $1 million and $1.03 million. Buyers who act in the current window may benefit from both price and rate advantages relative to the broader cycle.
