The $1 Million Threshold Has Been Broken
In February 2026, the Greater Toronto Area crossed a symbolic milestone: the composite average home price fell below $1 million for the first time since early 2021. According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the average selling price across all property types settled at approximately $973,289, representing a 6.5% decline from the same period last year.
This shift has sparked intense debate among industry professionals. Is this a correction, a buying opportunity, or a sign of deeper structural change? The answer depends heavily on where you live and what type of property you own.
What's Driving the Price Decline?
Several factors have converged to push prices below the million-dollar mark:
- Elevated inventory levels: New listings are up 14% year-over-year, giving buyers more choices and reducing bidding wars
- Condo market softness: The condominium segment has experienced the steepest declines, with average condo prices falling 9.8% to $605,000
- Investor pullback: Higher carrying costs and declining rental yields have cooled investor demand, particularly in the 905 region
- Buyer caution: Despite favorable interest rates at 2.25%, many buyers remain on the sidelines awaiting further price reductions
- US trade uncertainty: The upcoming CUSMA renegotiation in July 2026 has created significant economic uncertainty affecting buyer confidence
Neighborhood-by-Neighborhood Reality
The headline number masks significant variation across the GTA. Here is how key areas are performing:
Toronto Proper (416)
| Area | Average Price | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Downtown Core | $720,000 | -9% |
| Midtown | $1,180,000 | -4% |
| East York | $1,050,000 | -3% |
| North York | $1,020,000 | -5% |
| Scarborough | $895,000 | -2% |
Downtown condos have been hit hardest, while low-rise properties in established neighborhoods like Leaside and Lawrence Park remain relatively resilient. The average Toronto (416) price fell to $948,698, down 3.8% year-over-year.
905 Region
- Mississauga: Average price $940,000 (down 5% YoY), with Port Credit still commanding premiums above $1.2M
- Brampton: Average price $920,000 (down 4%), making it one of the most accessible markets in the GTA
- Oakville: Average price $1,350,000 (down 3%), still firmly above the million-dollar mark
- Markham: Average price $1,100,000 (down 6%), with significant condo inventory weighing on averages
- Durham Region: Average price $830,000 (down 3%), emerging as a value destination
The Condo Crisis Deserves Special Attention
The condo market is under severe stress, with prices down 9.8% to an average of $604,759 and sales down 26% year-over-year. Key factors include:
- Investor exit: Many pandemic-era investors are now selling, flooding the market with supply
- Pre-construction completions: Thousands of new units are hitting the market simultaneously from projects sold in 2021-2022
- Rising maintenance fees: Increasing condo fees are making ownership less attractive
- Work-from-home impact: Fewer people need downtown condos for commuting purposes
What Your Home Is Really Worth
If you are a homeowner wondering about your property's current value, consider these practical steps:
- Check comparable sales from the last 60 days in your specific neighborhood, not GTA-wide averages
- Account for property type: Detached homes have held value better than condos and townhouses
- Factor in local amenities: Proximity to transit, schools, and employment centers continues to support prices
- Get a professional assessment: A Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) from a licensed agent provides the most accurate picture
What your neighbor's house sold for in 2022 is irrelevant. What matters is what buyers will pay today.
What This Means for Buyers
For prospective buyers, this price correction presents a genuine opportunity:
- Improved affordability: Prices are down 6.5% year-over-year with real negotiating power
- Less competition: Only 22% of GTA residents say they are likely to buy in the next year
- Homes selling below asking: Properties are selling 3% below asking price on average
- More time to decide: Average days on market has risen to 67 days, up from 55 last year
If you find a property you love at a price that works for your budget, 2026 offers a rare window. Interest rates are not expected to drop further, and prices are forecast to stabilize later this year.
What This Means for Sellers
Sellers need to recalibrate expectations. Pricing competitively from day one is critical:
- Price accurately: Your home is likely worth less than it was a year ago, and potentially much less than in 2021-2022
- Act on data: Overpriced listings are sitting an average of 67 days on market
- Invest in presentation: Professional staging and high-quality photography help your listing stand out in a crowded market
- Be patient: TRREB expects selling prices will likely be lower year-over-year in the first half of 2026 before stabilizing in the second half
Looking Ahead
The GTA housing market has entered a new phase. This is not a crash -- it is a correction back to more sustainable levels after the pandemic surge.
TRREB forecasts the average selling price to settle between $1 million and $1.03 million for the full year 2026, with the first half softer and the second half showing stabilization. If economic prospects and consumer confidence improve, pent-up demand from recent years could begin to be satisfied.
The sub-million average may be temporary, but it offers a meaningful window for strategic buyers and sellers willing to act decisively.
