Last Updated: January 30, 2026 | RCIB Real Estate Team
Are Real Estate Prices Dropping in Canada? The Short Answer
Yes, real estate prices are dropping in many Ontario markets. As of December 2025, 15 Ontario regions have experienced year-over-year price declines ranging from 6.4% to 13.2%, with some markets seeing corrections of over $100,000 from peak pricing.
Key Facts:
- Chatham-Kent prices dropped 13.2% ($441,428 → $383,206)
- Oakville-Milton declined 10.1% ($1,170,800 → $1,052,600)
- Durham Region fell 8.8% ($921,682 → $840,959)
- 14 other Ontario markets experienced corrections between 6-9%
However, this isn’t a uniform national trend. While Ontario dominates the list of declining markets, provinces like Quebec, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland are seeing price increases. The answer to “are prices dropping?” depends entirely on where you’re looking.
Where Are Real Estate Prices Dropping the Most?
Ontario’s Top 5 Declining Markets (Year-Over-Year)
If you’re searching “are real estate prices dropping near me,” these Ontario markets have seen the steepest corrections:
1. Chatham-Kent: -13.2% Price Drop
- December 2024: $441,428
- December 2025: $383,206
- Savings: $58,222
- Monthly Impact: ~$300-350 less in mortgage payments
Why prices are dropping: Post-pandemic remote work surge has cooled; local employment fundamentals returning to normal
2. Oakville-Milton: -10.1% Price Drop
- December 2024: $1,170,800
- December 2025: $1,052,600
- Savings: $118,200
- Monthly Impact: ~$600-700 less in mortgage payments
Why prices are dropping: Premium GTA suburbs correcting after outsized 2020-2022 appreciation
3. Huron Perth: -9.5% Price Drop
- December 2024: $587,100
- December 2025: $531,400
- Savings: $55,700
4. Durham Region (GTA East): -8.8% Price Drop
- December 2024: $921,682
- December 2025: $840,959
- Savings: $80,723
- Monthly Impact: ~$400-500 less in mortgage payments
Why this matters: Durham offers GTA access at significantly reduced pricing—a key opportunity for Toronto commuters
5. Kitchener-Waterloo: -8.7% Price Drop
- December 2024: $816,400
- December 2025: $746,200
- Savings: $70,200
Are Real Estate Prices Dropping in Toronto and the GTA?
This is the question most of our RCIB clients ask. The answer is nuanced:
Core Toronto: Stable to Slight Decline
Downtown Toronto and desirable core neighborhoods have remained relatively stable, with modest 2-3% declines in some segments. Inventory constraints continue supporting prices.
GTA Suburbs: Yes, Prices Are Dropping
- Durham Region: -8.8%
- Oakville-Milton: -10.1%
- Hamilton-Burlington: -7.4%
- Barrie and District: -6.5%
GTA Exurbs: Significant Corrections
Markets that saw explosive pandemic-era growth are correcting most sharply:
- Kawartha Lakes: -8.1%
- Peterborough: -7.0%
- Northumberland Hills: -6.4%
Bottom Line: If you’re asking “are real estate prices dropping in the GTA?”—the answer is yes for suburbs and exurbs, stable for the core.
14 More Ontario Markets Where Prices Are Dropping
Beyond the top 5, these markets have experienced meaningful declines:
| Market | Price Decline | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| London-St. Thomas | -8.3% | Regional hub with university/hospital employment |
| Kawartha Lakes | -8.1% | Pandemic cottage market cooling |
| Guelph | -7.6% | Tech/university city correcting from highs |
| Woodstock-Ingersoll-Tillsonburg | -7.6% | Manufacturing-based economy adjusting |
| Hamilton-Burlington | -7.4% | GTA west alternative seeing normalization |
| Niagara Region | -7.4% | Tourism/retirement market recalibrating |
| Peterborough and Kawarthas | -7.0% | Remote work demand moderating |
| Barrie and District | -6.5% | Commuter market finding equilibrium |
| Northumberland Hills | -6.4% | Lifestyle market correcting |
| Cambridge | -6.2% | Tech corridor adjusting |
Why Are Real Estate Prices Dropping?
Understanding why prices are falling helps predict what happens next:
1. Interest Rate Impact (2022-2024)
The Bank of Canada raised rates aggressively from 0.25% to 5.0%, dramatically reducing purchasing power and cooling speculative demand.
2. Affordability Correction
Pandemic-era appreciation outpaced income growth by wide margins. Markets are correcting back toward fundamentals where local incomes can support pricing.
3. Reduced Investor Activity
Higher financing costs and negative cash flow on most rental properties have pushed investors to the sidelines, removing a significant demand segment.
4. GTA Exodus Reversal
The “move anywhere” remote work trend that drove 2020-2022 exurban growth has moderated as return-to-office policies have increased.
5. Inventory Normalization
Markets that were severely supply-constrained during the pandemic are seeing more balanced inventory levels.
Are Real Estate Prices Going to Keep Dropping?
What the Experts Predict for 2026:
Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA):
Forecasts 2.8% national price increase in 2026, driven by pent-up demand and stable interest rates
Major Banks’ Consensus:
- Interest rates to remain stable through 2026
- Modest price appreciation nationally (1-3%)
- Regional variation will be significant
RCIB’s Ontario-Specific Outlook:
âś“ Markets that have corrected 8-13% are likely near bottom – Further significant declines unlikely
âś“ Spring 2026 will bring increased buyer activity – Rate stability restores confidence
âś“ Core GTA will see modest appreciation – Inventory constraints remain
âś“ Suburban corrections may continue modestly – 2-4% additional softening possible in some markets
âś“ Opportunity window is narrowing – Best value likely Q1-Q2 2026 before spring market fully activates
Bottom Line: While prices have dropped significantly in many Ontario markets, most analysts expect stabilization and modest recovery through 2026 rather than continued steep declines.
What Dropping Prices Mean for Buyers and Sellers
If You’re Buying:
âś“ Affordability Has Improved Dramatically
A $100,000 price reduction (common in many markets) translates to:
- $20,000 less required for down payment (20%)
- $500-600 less in monthly mortgage payments
- $35,000-40,000 less in household income required to qualify
âś“ Negotiation Leverage Has Shifted
Seller urgency is higher in correcting markets, creating opportunities for:
- Below-asking offers
- Closing cost concessions
- Inspection-based renegotiation
- Extended closing timelines
âś“ Strategic Timing Advantage
Markets showing 8-10% corrections are likely approaching equilibrium. Waiting for “bottom” risks missing the window as spring activity increases.
If You’re Selling:
âś“ Pricing Strategy is Critical
In declining markets, overpricing by even 5% can mean months on market and eventual sale below well-priced comparables.
âś“ Presentation Matters More
When prices are falling, well-presented homes in desirable pockets still command premiums while dated properties face steeper discounts.
âś“ Timing Considerations
- Now (Jan-Feb 2026): Less competition from other sellers, serious buyers only
- Spring (March-May): More buyers, but also more inventory—advantage depends on property type/location
Are Prices Dropping in Other Provinces?
British Columbia:
Powell River saw the steepest Canadian decline at -17.5%, but Greater Vancouver has remained relatively stable with modest 2-3% corrections in some segments.
Alberta:
Prices are rising in Calgary and Edmonton, bucking the national trend with strong employment and interprovincial migration.
Quebec:
Forecasted for price increases in 2026, particularly Montreal and Quebec City, driven by strong fundamentals and affordability relative to Ontario.
Atlantic Canada:
Mixed results—some markets stable, others seeing modest increases as they remain affordable entry points.
Ontario stands alone as the province with the most markets experiencing significant price corrections.
Should You Buy Now or Wait for Prices to Drop Further?
This is the critical question. Here’s how to think about it:
Buy Now If:
✓ You’ve found a property in a market that’s corrected 8-10%+
✓ You’re in a financial position to qualify comfortably
✓ You’re buying for 5+ year timeline (short-term volatility won’t impact you)
âś“ The property meets your needs regardless of short-term price movement
âś“ Spring competition would stress your budget or reduce negotiation leverage
Wait If:
✓ You’re speculating on further 10-15% declines (unlikely based on current data)
âś“ Your financial situation is uncertain
✓ You’re buying purely as short-term investment
✓ The specific property/neighborhood doesn’t align with your needs
The Risk of Waiting:
Markets that have already corrected 8-13% are approaching historical norms. With CREA forecasting national price increases and spring activity expected to accelerate, waiting for significantly lower prices may mean:
- Missing the actual bottom by months
- Facing more competition in spring
- Losing on interest rate lock-in opportunities
- Watching desirable properties get purchased by more decisive buyers
RCIB’s Strategic Advantage in Declining Markets
When prices are dropping, local expertise becomes critical. Regional averages mask enormous variation—some neighborhoods are holding value while others in the same city are correcting sharply.
What RCIB Brings to Your Search:
🎯 Micro-Market Analysis
We track pricing at the neighborhood and property-type level, identifying where value actually exists beyond headlines
đź’ˇ Opportunity Identification
Our 60+ agents monitor new listings, price reductions, and motivated sellers across the GTA
đź’Ş Negotiation Leverage
In buyer-friendly markets, skilled negotiation can capture 3-5% additional value beyond list price
đź“Š Comparative Intelligence
We show you not just where prices are, but where they’re heading based on inventory trends, days on market, and absorption rates
⏱️ Timing Strategy
Understanding whether a market is early, mid, or late in its correction phase determines whether you should act now or monitor further
Frequently Asked Questions: Dropping Real Estate Prices
Are home prices dropping across Canada?
No—prices are dropping significantly in Ontario (15 markets with 6-13% declines), but rising in Alberta, Quebec, and parts of Atlantic Canada. Market performance is highly regional.
Will real estate prices drop in 2026?
Most analysts forecast stabilization and modest increases nationally (2-3%) through 2026. Markets that have already corrected 8-10%+ are likely near bottom.
Are real estate prices dropping in Toronto?
Core Toronto has remained relatively stable (0-3% decline). GTA suburbs like Durham (-8.8%), Oakville-Milton (-10.1%), and Hamilton-Burlington (-7.4%) have seen more significant corrections.
Is now a good time to buy with prices dropping?
If you’re buying in a market that’s already corrected 8-10%+ and plan to hold 5+ years, current conditions offer strong value before spring activity drives prices back up.
How much have real estate prices dropped?
In Ontario’s most affected markets: $58,000-$118,000 in absolute terms, representing 6.4%-13.2% year-over-year declines.
Are prices going to drop more?
Modest additional softening (2-4%) is possible in some markets, but most have already experienced the bulk of their correction. Waiting for 20-30% declines is unrealistic based on current fundamentals.
Should I sell now or wait for prices to recover?
Depends on your timeline and circumstances. If you don’t need to sell immediately, waiting 12-18 months may capture recovery. If you must sell, spring 2026 offers more buyer activity than winter.
Take Action: Navigate Dropping Prices with Expert Guidance
Whether you’re looking to capitalize on price corrections or sell strategically in a shifting market, RCIB Real Estate provides the data-driven insights and local expertise you need.
Free Market Analysis Available:
- Customized price trend analysis for your target neighborhoods
- Comparative market data showing where value exists
- Strategic timing recommendations based on current conditions
- Buyer or seller consultation with experienced RCIB agents
RCIB Real Estate Limited, Brokerage
Serving the Greater Toronto Area Since 2004 | 60+ Professional Agents
Technology-Enabled | Data-Driven | Client-Focused
Related Resources:
- Durham Region Real Estate Market Report 2026
- Oakville-Milton Price Trends and Analysis
- First-Time Buyer Guide: Markets with Declining Prices
- GTA Suburbs Investment Opportunities 2026
- Hamilton-Burlington Buyer’s Market Strategy
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